8 min readInflation and recession, two words on the top of every investor’s mind right now. In our recent post on Inflation Winners and Losers, we talked about how the near-term outlook for inflation is relatively entrenched. This matters because the Fed has thrown the weight of its credibility on reducing inflation, raising interest rates aggressively since…
2 min readFOMC Meeting The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee met last week and Chair Jerome Powell spelled out a bleak outlook for the U.S. economy. The Fed’s year-end median expectation for the unemployment rate is 9.3%, with 2020 GDP growth projected at negative 6.50% and core PCE inflation at 1.0%. At the press conference following the…
5 min readThe coronavirus has been the major event in the global economy so far this year. With more than 40,000 confirmed cases globally as of 2/10/2020, it has already surpassed prior flu pandemics. It has resulted in the effective quarantining of the city of Hubei, along with severe travel restrictions in and around mainland China. There…
6 min readIs an inverted yield curve still a reliable predictor of an impending recession? And will the recent flattening yield curve affect bank credit quality? Currently, with the narrowest spread between the 2-Year U.S. Treasury bill and the 10-Year U.S. Treasury note since the 2007 recession, both those questions are on the minds of treasury professionals…
2 min readExecutive Summary Compared to past periods, the yield curve inversion we are experiencing is quite benign. Therefore, there need not be profound concerns that an economic recession will automatically derive from this phenomenon. After the Fed funds rate reaches its peak in the coming spring-summer timeframe, one can expect the shape of the yield curve…