19 min readIntroduction By Lance Pan, CFA 2024 was a remarkable year for financial markets in many respects. The estimated 2.7% growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) nearly doubled the Federal Reserve’s median projection of 1.4% a year earlier.[1] The S&P 500 stock index rose 23.3% on the heels of an equally impressive gain of 24.2%…
9 min readCash may be King, but it is also going virtual before our eyes. Digital cash used to be the domain of tech innovators and cryptocurrency enthusiasts. But if a pair of tokenized money market mutual funds (MMFs) is any indication, instantaneous movement of cash untethered to market hours may be close to reality. If today’s…
15 min readAbstract BBB-rated debt continues to offer new possibilities for cash investors. Although it involves taking on incremental credit risk, allowing purchase of these securities can help alleviate supply shortages while also offering additional return opportunities. Should investors look into adding BBB names to their portfolios, we recommend that they follow these principles. Guiding Principles: Introduction…
10 min readDuring the weekend following Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, it became apparent that the bank run which drove SVB to insolvency was spreading, placing extreme liquidity pressures on a few regional lenders. Bank balance sheets remained fundamentally stable, although, the volume and speed of deposit outflows at some banks was overwhelming available liquid resources. Many banks…
14 min readMinutes from the December FOMC meeting indicated that some Federal Reserve officials wanted to begin discussing “slowing the pace” of securities runoffs on its balance sheet. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed after the January meeting that the Committee will begin formal conversations on the topic at its March meeting. The indication of an end…
19 min readDOWNLOAD FULL REPORT Introduction By Lance Pan, CFA “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.” As the new year approaches and I prepare this introduction to our annual market outlook on cash investments, I can’t think of a better way to describe the past year than this quote by Charles…
7 min readWhen will “revenge spending” exhaust consumers’ pandemic-era savings? What does this mean for consumption and growth? Introduction Excess savings have become a marque piece of economic outlooks, attempting to estimate when consumers’ “revenge spending” will exhaust bank accounts leading to a drop in consumption. However, Q3 2023’s 4.9% annualized GDP growth, most of which was…
13 min readAs the SEC’s MMF rule amendments come into effect in October 2023, investors looking to return to institutional prime funds may want to be aware of the pros and cons of these changes. DOWNLOAD REPORT Introduction Three years after a Covid-induced market panic that caused runs on prime money market funds (“MMFs”), the Securities and…
10 min readExecutive Summary Effective liquidity management, especially for large cash portfolios with a range of investments, can quickly turn into a larger and more complex task than initially expected. Some financial executives may not have a firm grasp of what liquidity means in a portfolio of individual cash assets. But adhering to some simple guidelines and…
15 min readOnce again, it’s time for CFOs and corporate cash investors to start focusing on another debt ceiling showdown in the United States Congress. On May 1st, 2023, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen updated Congressional leaders that the United States would not be able to pay all its bills by June 1st, 2023.1 Secretary Yellen had previously…