2 min readAbstract We do not foresee a meaningful rise in short-term interest rates even as the Fed may begin tapering bond purchases. The fed funds rate, the key factor affecting short-term rates, likely will not start to rise prior to mid-2015. Investors should continue to look for opportunities further up the yield curve with separate account…
2 min readAbstract We have identified the acceleration of money market fund reform, the scarcity of eligible investments and the threat of negative yield as three challenges facing corporate treasury professionals in 2013. Our recommendation remains the same as found in previous research – consider a separately managed account as a defensive measure against regulatory uncertainty, supply…
3 min readAbstract The almost comical sounding term “Operation Twist” has been creeping into the financial media since last December as Federal Reserve officials and market commentators discussed innovative ways to revive the stagnant economy. This phrase became a household name on September 21st, when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to simultaneously buy $400 billion…
3 min readAbstract Treasury rates may remain at zero or negative levels for a prolonged period and additional banks may begin to charge “extraordinary deposits” fees, pushing depositors back into the money markets. It just may be a matter of time before many, if not most, treasurers are confronted with negative portfolio yield. Private and public sector…
1 min readAbstract With the Fed on hold for an extended period, institutional cash investors need a new perspective on dealing with the prolonged low yield reality. Our four-step guide reminds investors to expect lower yields in the new environment, increase exposure only to securities supported by strong fundamentals, improve yield potential with moderate maturity extension, and…
3 min readAs signs of stability returned to capital markets in recent weeks, we’ve begun to hear investors inquire as to how to improve yield in their cash portfolios. We acknowledge that, first and foremost, the return of risk appetite is a welcome and healthy sign after a period of frozen credits and a crisis of confidence….
2 min readExecutive Summary Investment Considerations: Government Sponsored Enterprises Government Money Market Funds FDIC TLGP Guaranteed Debt Foreign Government Guaranteed Debt Beware Certain “Industrial” Credits Institutional cash investors found themselves in a pickle when the market’s desire for safety made treasury securities and treasury money market funds inaccessible. However, when the default option is no longer an…
3 min readExecutive Summary From administering aggressive interest rate cuts to providing longer-term liquidity to financial firms; from accepting non-traditional asset collateral to assisting the Bear Stearns takeover by JPMorgan Chase; this Federal Reserve is unlike any we have seen in recent history. By throwing out the rulebook of central banking, some pundits say the Fed sets…
2 min readExecutive Summary With 400 basis points of Fed Funds rate increases over the past 24 months, investors are rightfully anxious about the impact of the Fed tightening policy. Our study finds that historically falling core CPI data tends to encourage the Fed to stop raising rates. Other key indicators, however, do not seem to have…
2 min readExecutive Summary Compared to past periods, the yield curve inversion we are experiencing is quite benign. Therefore, there need not be profound concerns that an economic recession will automatically derive from this phenomenon. After the Fed funds rate reaches its peak in the coming spring-summer timeframe, one can expect the shape of the yield curve…