19 min readDOWNLOAD FULL REPORT Abstract Rather than dismissing September’s repo turbulence as stemming from idiosyncratic events easily rectified by the Fed, we think that the event reveals broader vulnerabilities within the hidden plumbing of our financial system. Although not all institutional cash portfolios directly use repo, this squeeze should concern us all. We don’t think there…
5 min readThe interest rate blues are well in effect. For those with enough foresight to see this coming (and thus to load up on long-duration Treasury bonds) it has been an absolute riot. For the rest of the fixed income investment community, it’s been a bit of a bloodbath. Figure 1: Yield Curve Source: Bloomberg Over…
5 min readThis past week saw some nearly unprecedented chaos in repo markets. Beginning late Monday and extending into Tuesday morning, funding in overnight cash markets essentially dried up, sending investors scrambling for liquidity. This resulted in a surge in repo rates for those who did transact, with overnight rates jumping from the low-to-mid 2% range to…
2 min readWhen a multi-billion-dollar rate-fixing scandal in 2012 undermined confidence in LIBOR as the standard global benchmark for interest rates on short-term debt, regulators from the U.S. and U.K. started searching for a suitable replacement. A lot was riding on the choice: more than $200 trillion in floating-rate bonds, derivatives contracts, securitizations, and loans around the…
8 min readDOWNLOAD FULL REPORT Abstract The era of LIBOR (the London Inter-Bank Offered Rate) is coming to an end. The rate, which underpins some $200 trillion in floating-rate bonds, loans, securitizations, and derivatives contracts, is broken—at least according to the international regulatory community. In the U.S., this has led to the introduction of SOFR (the Secured…
6 min readIntroduction The President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, recently performed an about-face on the direction of interest rates. After having previously announced plans to begin raising interest rates out of the negative range, Draghi altered course significantly, stating that rates will likely remain negative until at least 2021. Negative rates, initially intended to act as…
13 min readDOWNLOAD FULL REPORT Abstract The March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision was a major market event that directly resulted in an inverted yield curve. The Fed’s interest rate and growth outlook change echoed other recent moves by central banks that may indicate the end of a tightening monetary cycle. The inverted curve may be…
7 min readIt’s been widely publicized that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has come under pressure from the White House to pause rate hikes for fear of straining the economy. More recently, there have been allegations that balance sheet reduction is in part to blame for the volatility that shook markets in December. At the same time,…
14 min readAbstract We have identified the Fed and a flattening yield curve, trade wars and a global slowdown, and Brexit and other uncertainties as the three main themes to watch in 2019. Compared to 2018, we think 2019 will be a bit more challenging for short-term liquidity investors. A flatter yield curve may attract more non-traditional…
2 min readIf you’re a cash investor waiting for bank deposit yields to catch up with the Fed’s interest rate hikes, don’t hold your breath. The so-called “deposit beta,” which measures how fast banks raise their rates as a percentage of the increase in the federal funds rate, has risen at a snail’s pace compared to previous…