6 min readIntroduction The President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, recently performed an about-face on the direction of interest rates. After having previously announced plans to begin raising interest rates out of the negative range, Draghi altered course significantly, stating that rates will likely remain negative until at least 2021. Negative rates, initially intended to act as…
13 min readDOWNLOAD FULL REPORT Abstract The March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision was a major market event that directly resulted in an inverted yield curve. The Fed’s interest rate and growth outlook change echoed other recent moves by central banks that may indicate the end of a tightening monetary cycle. The inverted curve may be…
7 min readIt’s been widely publicized that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has come under pressure from the White House to pause rate hikes for fear of straining the economy. More recently, there have been allegations that balance sheet reduction is in part to blame for the volatility that shook markets in December. At the same time,…
14 min readAbstract We have identified the Fed and a flattening yield curve, trade wars and a global slowdown, and Brexit and other uncertainties as the three main themes to watch in 2019. Compared to 2018, we think 2019 will be a bit more challenging for short-term liquidity investors. A flatter yield curve may attract more non-traditional…
2 min readIf you’re a cash investor waiting for bank deposit yields to catch up with the Fed’s interest rate hikes, don’t hold your breath. The so-called “deposit beta,” which measures how fast banks raise their rates as a percentage of the increase in the federal funds rate, has risen at a snail’s pace compared to previous…
9 min readAbstract Deposit rates are starting to increase as we move further into a rising rate environment. Banks still have not rewarded depositors sufficiently with a 21% average deposit beta, although some executives expressed moving it above 50%. The wait for higher rates continues unless depositors are willing to consider market-based instruments. There, several options exist…
4 min readAbstract For institutional cash investors unsure of separately managed accounts in a rising interest rate environment, our scenario analysis suggests that a laddered portfolio of agency and corporate securities with a modest WAM could outperform the government money market fund proxy with negligible unrealized loss concerns. Both agency and corporate portfolios with maximum maturities of…
1 min readBanks have traditionally been a little slow to follow interest rate hikes by the Fed with comparable rate increases on their own deposit accounts. But this time around they seem to be moving more slowly than ever. Our August research report―Higher Deposit Rates-Where Art Thou?―looks back at the past two Fed tightening cycles and compares…
3 min readAbstract The return of yield opportunities presents institutional cash investors with fresh challenges. Higher rates have driven up the cost of staying with ultra conservative instruments. Money market fund reforms have left corporate cash managers with few clear choices to add yield. And historically popular cash vehicles that have undergone significant changes demand a fresh…
4 min readAbstract Key takeaways: While details are lacking, one can generally expect balance sheet normalization to start at the end of 2017, with reinvestment gradually phased out over one year, taking 2.5 years to complete for a total reduction of $1.8 trillion in Treasury and MBS bonds. Impacts to Expect: Higher interest rates on Treasury securities…