7 min readIntroduction The Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) meeting last month was perhaps the most consequential central bank meeting of the entire year. The BOJ raised interest rates by 10 bps to 0-0.10%, all-in-all a small amount in magnitude. However, this marked the first interest rate increase by the central bank in 17 years. Moreover, it marked…
7 min readFollowing pandemic-era supply chain disruptions, bottlenecks have become a top-of-mind subject for investors. At the center of the Fed’s tightening cycle was the soft landing—the idea that tighter financial conditions would help bring supply-and-demand into better balance, ease bottlenecks, and bring inflation toward 2% without significantly impacting growth. When last December’s Summary of Economic Projections…
12 min readIntroduction Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of the United States coveted “AAA” credit rating to “AA+” on Tuesday, August 1st, 2023, drew an end to a minor mystery. The rating agency left U.S. sovereign debt on “Rating Watch Negative” after Congress agreed to suspend the debt limit just days before the x-date in June, citing “lower confidence…
5 min readHow China’s reopening may have implications on the global economy and credit markets The last domino is falling. Nearly three years ago, the world shut down in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, causing a massive slowdown in consumer spending and major disruptions to supply chains. Since then, as people have logged off Zoom and emerged…
8 min readInflation and recession, two words on the top of every investor’s mind right now. In our recent post on Inflation Winners and Losers, we talked about how the near-term outlook for inflation is relatively entrenched. This matters because the Fed has thrown the weight of its credibility on reducing inflation, raising interest rates aggressively since…
2 min readAfter experiencing the most tumultuous year on record, the major stock indices finished 2020 in a strong manner. On the last day of December, the S&P 500 logged its 14th record close of 2020 while the Nasdaq just missed its 56th record close by approximately 10 points. For the year, the DJIA rose 7.2%, the…
6 min readThe global tech supply chain is about to be turned upside down. Tensions between the U.S. and China, heightened in a two-year-long trade war, were already instigating conversations regarding relocating and reconstructing the supply chain. Now that the coronavirus has further exposed the limited geographic diversity and concentration levels in the supply chain, it is…
17 min readDOWNLOAD FULL REPORT Abstract While the flood of information on the new coronavirus can be overwhelming, treasury professionals should consider how the outbreak may affect their liquidity portfolios. The consensus market view is that the epidemic will have a moderate and temporary impact on the world economy. We think the 2003 SARS epidemic and the…
5 min readThe coronavirus has been the major event in the global economy so far this year. With more than 40,000 confirmed cases globally as of 2/10/2020, it has already surpassed prior flu pandemics. It has resulted in the effective quarantining of the city of Hubei, along with severe travel restrictions in and around mainland China. There…
6 min readIntroduction The President of the ECB, Mario Draghi, recently performed an about-face on the direction of interest rates. After having previously announced plans to begin raising interest rates out of the negative range, Draghi altered course significantly, stating that rates will likely remain negative until at least 2021. Negative rates, initially intended to act as…