3 min readLabor Market Remains Solid but Data Could be Noisy Ahead The September employment report was solid overall but with hurricanes Helene and Milton hitting the Southeast of the United States, labor statistics could be noisy ahead. September Employment Report: Looking ahead, the October jobs report (which will be released on November 1st) will incorporate layoffs…
6 min readFed Cut Rates by 50 Basis Points – But 50 is Not “the New Pace” At the September 18th FOMC meeting, the Fed cut the federal funds rate for the first time in over 4 years by 50 basis points to a new range of 4.75%-to-5.00%. Heading into the meeting, Fed Chair Powell made clear…
3 min readThe Time Has Come To Cut Rates In his keynote address at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Powell said the Fed now feels it is time to adjust monetary policy. His comment followed the release of the minutes from the Fed’s July FOMC meeting, which showed “several” members were in…
4 min readReturn of the Dual Mandate “For a long time, the risks were more that we would fail to hit our inflation target…. we’re very much aware that we have two-sided risks now.” This was a quote from Federal Reserve Chair Powell when he spoke to Congress last week, acknowledging that elevated inflation “is not the…
3 min readRetail Sales Disappoints, Again For the second consecutive month, retail sales came in lower than expected and showed signs that the effects of higher borrowing costs could be impacting US consumers. The May reading rose +0.1% while the flat April reading was revised lower to -0.2%. The Control Group, which feeds into the consumption component…
3 min readLabor Market Data is Mixed 2024 Inflation Data May Finally be Moderating Economic Data Leads to Ongoing Rate Volatility The first half of June brought a fresh roller coaster ride of volatile yields. The 2-year note is one of the tenors most impacted by future monetary policy, and June began with the 2-year yield declining…
1 min readThe early-stage debt financing market, which includes venture debt, had its foundation rattled little more than a year ago when its de facto leader, Silicon Valley Bank, suffered a major crisis. This event subsequently triggered a broader venture banking upheaval that reverberated throughout the venture debt markets. Watch a recording (5/08/2024) of Capital Advisors Group’s…
4 min readQ1 2024 Performance: Risk Assets Outperform The first quarter of 2024 saw everything from stocks, gold and even Bitcoin rise to record highs as it becomes increasingly likely that the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy. Treasury yields were mixed during the first quarter with 1-month to 6-month…
9 min readThe Fed shifted its policy stance radically at its December meeting, increasing the pace of its reduction in asset purchases and pushing up the timeline for rate hikes. This move was a culmination of policy being out of sync with the state of the economy, as it was extremely accommodative even with above target inflation…
2 min readInflation & Employment Readings on consumer inflation this week remained tame overall with wide variance around the average for certain components. CPI for September was up just 1.4% year-over-year and Core CPI was up 1.7% year-over-year. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims remain high at nearly 900,000 in the week ended October 10. Surging COVID-19 infection rates…