2 min readIn a move that was widely expected, the Federal Reserve cut rates last Wednesday by 25 basis points to the 1.50% to 1.75% range. Seven officials voted for the cut, and two (Esther George and Eric Rosengren) dissented again in favor of no change in monetary policy. Because the rate reduction had been anticipated, the…
2 min readEverchanging speculation on tariff war developments continues to drive bond market volatility as well as projections on potential interest rate cuts. Earlier this month, a mini-deal between the Trump administration and Chinese officials buoyed market sentiment when additional tariffs slated for implementation in December were delayed and China agreed to buy additional US agricultural products….
5 min readThe longest government shutdown in history is already having a significant impact on the economy. Equally important, but less well understood, is the potential impact on negotiations over the March 1 deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. As President Trump has continued to insist on a $5.7 billion allocation towards construction of a border…
14 min readCo-authored by: Matthew Paniati Abstract The past few years have been mostly predictable for investors, with an expanding economy accompanied by steadily rising interest rates and asset prices. In this two-part series, we examine some recent developments and their implications for the current environment. In part two, we look at the current state of fiscal…
12 min readCo-authored by: Spyros Qendro, CFA Abstract The past few years have been predictable for investors, with an expanding economy accompanied by steadily rising interest rates and asset prices. In this two-part series, we look at some recent developments and their implications for the current environment. In part one, we look at recent equity market volatility,…
6 min readIs an inverted yield curve still a reliable predictor of an impending recession? And will the recent flattening yield curve affect bank credit quality? Currently, with the narrowest spread between the 2-Year U.S. Treasury bill and the 10-Year U.S. Treasury note since the 2007 recession, both those questions are on the minds of treasury professionals…
2 min readThe great paradox of 2017 was the relative calm in short-term debt markets in the face of unprecedented turbulence in the daily news cycle. Our new President’s unconventional communication style did not lead to the financial market volatility many had predicted. And despite ongoing partisan political turmoil, multiple terror incidents, an uncertain start to Brexit,…
4 min readAbstract At the start of each year, we typically name three broad market trends or events that could potentially have the greatest impact on the short-term debt market. For 2018, we think central bank tightening, tax reform and event risk will have the most impact on short-term debt markets. We are generally sanguine about the…
3 min readAbstract Debt limit negotiations often go down to the wire, generating headline risk and investor uneasiness. The yield on T-bills maturing around default date may be substantially higher than those maturing in neighboring months. The exponential growth in government money market funds since the 2016 regulatory reform increases contagion risk should shareholders and portfolio managers…
5 min readPerhaps no word better describes the start of 2017 than “transition.” The year began with the White House’s transition from the Obama to the Trump administration, continued with the rise of European populism, and recently culminated in the official beginning of Britain’s transition out of the European Union. Somewhat less noticeably, change is also taking…