15 min readOnce again, it’s time for CFOs and corporate cash investors to start focusing on another debt ceiling showdown in the United States Congress. On May 1st, 2023, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen updated Congressional leaders that the United States would not be able to pay all its bills by June 1st, 2023.1 Secretary Yellen had previously…
5 min readThe longest government shutdown in history is already having a significant impact on the economy. Equally important, but less well understood, is the potential impact on negotiations over the March 1 deadline to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. As President Trump has continued to insist on a $5.7 billion allocation towards construction of a border…
3 min readAbstract Debt limit negotiations often go down to the wire, generating headline risk and investor uneasiness. The yield on T-bills maturing around default date may be substantially higher than those maturing in neighboring months. The exponential growth in government money market funds since the 2016 regulatory reform increases contagion risk should shareholders and portfolio managers…
4 min readRemember the debt ceiling fights of 2011 and 2013? They may be in the back of many investors’ minds now, but will likely be front and center again leading up to March 15, when the suspension of the federal government debt ceiling expires. Any institutional cash investor who lived through those earlier Congressional standoffs knows…
4 min readAbstract We select Trumponomics, the debt ceiling rollercoaster and geopolitics as three main themes to watch in 2017. Federal stimulus may in fact be underwhelming and a stronger dollar and trade wars may further erode the effect of increased government spending. The immense size of government money market funds ($2.2 trillion) may present challenges throughout…
3 min readAbstract The U.S. debt ceiling situation remains fluid, but we believe that a U.S. default is an extremely remote possibility. A ratings downgrade from AAA may be more likely due to the diminished prospect of a credible deficit reduction path. Market implications of such a downgrade may be greater than merely higher borrowing costs for…