Credit Risk

Credit Implications of The Digital Markets Act

Credit Implications of The Digital Markets Act

9 min readIntroduction On March 7th, 2024, the European Commission (EC) began enforcing the Digital Markets Act (DMA), one of the most sweeping antitrust policies for Big Tech to date. Yet despite the broad scope covered under the legislation, the market reaction was relatively muted. This suggests a belief that the companies’ operational changes proposed to comply…

The Empire Strikes Back: Return of Oil and Gas Dominance for U.S. Integrated Energy

The Empire Strikes Back: Return of Oil and Gas Dominance for U.S. Integrated Energy

5 min readIntroduction Earlier this year, European oil majors BP and Shell announced that they would roll back their energy transition plans and keep oil and gas as relatively large parts of their portfolio. In October 2023, their American counterparts Exxon Mobil and Chevron doubled down on a collective $115 billion bet on fossil fuels. Exxon Mobil…

Should Bondholders Worry about the U.S. Government’s Recent Credit Rating Downgrade?

Should Bondholders Worry about the U.S. Government’s Recent Credit Rating Downgrade?

12 min readIntroduction Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of the United States coveted “AAA” credit rating to “AA+” on Tuesday, August 1st, 2023, drew an end to a minor mystery. The rating agency left U.S. sovereign debt on “Rating Watch Negative” after Congress agreed to suspend the debt limit just days before the x-date in June, citing “lower confidence…

Commercial Real Estate: Finding the Next Shoe to Drop

Commercial Real Estate: Finding the Next Shoe to Drop

7 min readMacroeconomic Conditions The post-pandemic economy has had to contend with a rarely seen number of short-term disruptions and fundamental shifts to which it has mostly taken in stride. So far, we have avoided a widely broadcast recession, helped initially by huge amounts of pandemic related financial aid, and followed by a historically strong labor market…

Tailoring a Swift Change to Deposit Insurance

Tailoring a Swift Change to Deposit Insurance

5 min readFollowing the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and the sale of First Republic, there’s been an increasing interest by regulators to reform the US deposit insurance scheme to fully protect the banking system from future bank runs. The Perfect Storm for Bank Runs  Panic among deposit holders lit the initial spark that led…

An Expensive Lesson on Uninsured Deposit Risk in Cash Management

An Expensive Lesson on Uninsured Deposit Risk in Cash Management

2 min readIntroduction The single biggest credit risk for institutional cash investors lies in the large uninsured deposits they leave at their operating banks. Particularly at risk are uninsured balances at banks with less diversified business profiles and aggressive risk cultures that expose depositors to the risk of a bank run, which is difficult to predict and…

ESG: A Credit Investor’s Oldest New Friend

ESG: A Credit Investor’s Oldest New Friend

6 min readHow the availability of ESG data is changing the way investors can apply ESG to their decision-making process Much of the commentary surrounding ESG investing hails it as an approach which has largely been developed and risen to prominence in recent years. While its rapid rise in popularity since the COVID pandemic has led to…

Growing Pains: The Emergence of Super-Regional Banks

Growing Pains: The Emergence of Super-Regional Banks

6 min readIn a speech given in April 2022, Acting Comptroller of the Currency Michael Hsu recalled the ‘chaos’ driven by a series of bank failures during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) . This resulted in a flurry of acquisitions and unorderly liquidations thrown together to prevent further disruption to the financial system. This experience eventually led…

ESG: Auto Manufacturers Focus on Carbon Transition

ESG: Auto Manufacturers Focus on Carbon Transition

4 min readHow auto manufacturers are developing strategies for improved ESG ratings Over the past several years, auto manufacturers have been increasingly focused on reducing carbon emissions via improving vehicle fuel efficiency and transitioning their product lines to fully electric vehicles. This increasing focus isn’t unfounded: according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the transportation sector accounted…