Economy & Rates

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Implications of Coronavirus Vaccine Development

6 min readWith 48 potential SARS-CoV-2 vaccines now undergoing clinical trials on humans, there’s mounting hope that one or more will be available in 2021. But many unknowns remain, especially regarding potential financial implications for the pharmaceutical companies that produce them. Timing of their arrival, manufacturing capacity, distribution, levels of potential government support, overall costs, and final…

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Interest Rate Outlook: Inflation & Employment

2 min readInflation & Employment Readings on consumer inflation this week remained tame overall with wide variance around the average for certain components. CPI for September was up just 1.4% year-over-year and Core CPI was up 1.7% year-over-year. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims remain high at nearly 900,000 in the week ended October 10. Surging COVID-19 infection rates…

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Interest Rate Outlook: The Fed’s Inflation Target

2 min readFed officials are committed to the current level of rates until inflation exceeds 2% Several Fed officials spoke in late September on the timing of future interest rate hikes in relation to the inflation target of 2%. Chicago Fed President Evans reversed his earlier position that the Fed could start raising rates before inflation reaches…

Federal Reserve’s Economic Projections

Federal Reserve’s Economic Projections

2 min readFOMC Meeting The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at yesterday’s meeting on monetary policy, and in the statement accompanying the meeting, the Fed commented that “Economic activity and employment have picked up in recent months but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year.” And while “Overall financial conditions have improved…

Government Yield Curves are Flat and Low

Government Yield Curves are Flat and Low

2 min readFOMC Minutes Released The minutes from the FOMC’s July 28-29 meeting were released today. In the committee’s discussion about how to continue to support the flow of credit to consumers, they deemed “it would be appropriate over coming months for the Federal Reserve to increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency residential mortgage-backed securities…

COVID-19 infection Rates Surge

COVID-19 infection Rates Surge

1 min readCOVID-19 infection rates have fallen dramatically in most industrialized nations, but new cases in the U.S. and in developing countries have surged to record levels in the last few weeks. Despite the serious setbacks, lawmakers in the U.S. continue to grapple with how to most appropriately implement mask requirements to slow the spread of the…

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June Unemployment Report Shows Beginning of Recovery

2 min readStates across the U.S. set multiple single day records for new COVID-19 cases this past week. On June 27th, Florida reported 9,500 new cases, breaking its own record for daily new cases, which it set just a day earlier. Driven primarily by Southern and Southwestern states, the surge has forced legislatures to act. Florida has…

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Interest Rate Outlook: Controversial May Employment Report

2 min readFOMC Meeting The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee met last week and Chair Jerome Powell spelled out a bleak outlook for the U.S. economy. The Fed’s year-end median expectation for the unemployment rate is 9.3%, with 2020 GDP growth projected at negative 6.50% and core PCE inflation at 1.0%. At the press conference following the…