Economy & Rates

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The Fed’s Inflation Headache Continues

2 min readGiven their aggressive efforts to tame price pressures over the past few quarters, Chair Powell and the Federal Reserve were likely to have been very disappointed by the release of August’s Consumer Price Index.  Despite a 2.25% increase in the overnight lending rate over just four meetings, the reading came in higher than expected with…

Shifting Tides: Inflation and Recession Risk

Shifting Tides: Inflation and Recession Risk

8 min readInflation and recession, two words on the top of every investor’s mind right now. In our recent post on Inflation Winners and Losers, we talked about how the near-term outlook for inflation is relatively entrenched. This matters because the Fed has thrown the weight of its credibility on reducing inflation, raising interest rates aggressively since…

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Interest Rate Update

2 min readThese are certainly challenging times for the Federal Reserve. The past few weeks brought new data confirming historically tight conditions in the labor market alongside soaring domestic price pressures. While the Fed’s recent aggressive rate hikes have yet to cool inflation, concerns are growing that the pace and scope of their activity will push the…

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Interest Rate Update

3 min readInvestors grew increasingly concerned about the risk of recession in late June. Stock markets were particularly volatile on Thursday with the S&P giving up 0.9% on the day and 21% over the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since the 1970s. The DJIA declined 0.8% and the Nasdaq retreated by 1.3% as…

LIBOR No More

LIBOR No More

6 min readLIBOR entered its next phase on January 1st, 2022. The date marked when no new financial contracts could be priced off LIBOR, which underpinned more than $200 trillion in loans , contracts, and derivatives as of the end of 2020. LIBOR (the London Interbank Offered Rate) will still be published as a reference rate for…

Lights, Camera, Agenda: Biden’s Regulatory Cast

Lights, Camera, Agenda: Biden’s Regulatory Cast

6 min readStepping into office with leading and supporting roles open across the government’s top financial regulators, the Biden administration was given a unique opportunity to reshape the financial regulatory landscape. Nominating four members to the seven-member Federal Reserve Board and promoting another to a key position, the Biden Administration has already made an outsized impact on…

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Interest Rate Update

2 min readThe Fed appears likely to increase its overnight rate target at the March 15th-16th FOMC meeting. In addition to many other Fed officials who have expressed a willingness to tighten monetary policy to contain inflation pressures, Fed Chair Powell reinforced the hawkish tone at his Senate nomination hearing earlier this month. Throughout most of 2021…