3 min readThe Fed is ‘Data Dependent’, as Always As was widely expected, the Fed increased their policy rate last week by 25 basis points to a new range of 5.25%-5.50%. This level is a 22-year high and it marks the 11th time since March of 2022 that the Fed has raised their target rate. The official FOMC…
3 min readSoft Labor Market & Inflation Releases June’s Employment Report was released on July 7th, showing an increase in non-farm payrolls of 209,000 vs. expectations for 230,000, marking the first time that payrolls have come in below market projections in the past 15 months. Additionally, payrolls were revised downward by a total of 110,000 in the…
4 min readYields Rise Welcome to the third quarter and the second half of 2023! Treasury yields rose across the curve during the second quarter, led by the 2-year note which rose 87 basis points to 4.90%. The rise in yields was a result of solid economic data, elevated inflation, and a Fed signaling a “higher-for-longer” monetary…
4 min readFederal Reserve – A Hawkish Pause As expected, the FOMC held the Federal Funds rate at the 5.00%-5.25% range at their June FOMC meeting, marking the first pause after 10 consecutive increases. The Fed has raised rates by a cumulative 5 percentage points since March of 2022, the most since the 1980s. Powell commented that…
7 min readThe History of the Fed’s Quantitative Tightening (QT) and its current standing The Fed’s history with Quantitative Tightening (QT) is both limited and perilous. Its only prior experience with Quantitative Tightening in 2018-2019 ended in disaster, when funding markets locked up in September 2019 due to a lack of available liquidity. This episode is infamously…
2 min readEmployment and Inflation Markets inferred optimism on inflation earlier this month from Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell’s press conference accompanying the FOMC’s February 1st decision to raise rates. While the Fed’s statement and Powell himself indicated that more than one additional rate hike remained likely, markets contradicted the Fed’s guidance and bet that only one…
2 min readCo-authored by: Pate Campbell Economic News The December Employment Report revealed a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.5% from 3.7% while 233K jobs were added to non-farm payrolls. Despite ongoing tightness in the labor market, average hourly earnings grew at 0.3%, slower than the rate in previous months. Lower hourly earnings growth not only…
3 min readFresh Economic Data This past week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released October’s Personal Income and Outlays Report. Personal income and spending rose by 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively, on a month-over-month basis. The headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index climbed by 6.0% year-over-year, while the core PCE index, stripping out food and energy costs and…
2 min readIn a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve raised the overnight lending rate today by 75 basis points for the 4th time in 4 meetings. Following the FOMC’s action, the rate now rests at the 3.75% to 4.00% range. The Fed’s 2022 tightening activity has been extraordinary for a central bank with a history of…
2 min readCPI Surprised to the Upside… Again The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in September, double the expected increase, despite a decline in energy prices for the month. Services and shelter costs were the biggest contributors, but large increases were broad-based across categories. Core CPI accelerated unexpectedly to a 0.6% monthly gain, pushing the year-over-year comparison…