2 min readWhen the Fed increased interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade last December, many cash investors expected multiple additional increases to follow this year. But since early January, capital market participants have been on a rollercoaster ride, buffeted by China’s stock-market meltdown, by collapsing commodity prices, and by other central banks around…
1 min readThe economic backdrop in January 2015 is markedly different from a year ago. The price of oil, the most widely used global commodity, is down over fifty percent and new deflation scares are emerging in Japan and the Eurozone. Even Tom Brady’s footballs are feeling the deflation contagion. Besides the plunge in oil prices, aggressive…
2 min readAbstract Lower oil prices and easier central bank policies outside the U.S. led the market to question the Fed’s timetable for raising interest rates. While both disinflationary and expansionary forces are present, financial markets appear to be focusing on the former, as the latter is still materializing. The net effect may allow the Fed to…
2 min readThis summer, the FOMC’s speeches and official statements have been focused on tapering the pace of the Federal Reserve’s asset purchases. Both the equity and fixed income markets have been hanging on to the Fed’s every word and the markets’ interpretation of the FOMC’s comments have led to a significant sell-off in longer-term yields, while…
2 min readAbstract We do not foresee a meaningful rise in short-term interest rates even as the Fed may begin tapering bond purchases. The fed funds rate, the key factor affecting short-term rates, likely will not start to rise prior to mid-2015. Investors should continue to look for opportunities further up the yield curve with separate account…
3 min readAbstract The almost comical sounding term “Operation Twist” has been creeping into the financial media since last December as Federal Reserve officials and market commentators discussed innovative ways to revive the stagnant economy. This phrase became a household name on September 21st, when the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to simultaneously buy $400 billion…
1 min readAgainst a backdrop of declining US growth projections, all eyes were on the Fed last week as they considered new policy initiatives designed to impact the cost of borrowing. Under consideration was the QE3 balance sheet expansion, as well as more politically palatable options, such as reducing the interest rates paid on excess reserves held…
3 min readIntroduction How long does it take for “green shoots” to grow into a “soft patch”? For the U.S. economy, it has taken a little more than two years. In his famous 60 Minutes interview on March 15, 2009, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke popularized the phrase “green shoots” to describe the growing confidence in the…
2 min readDespite record economic stimulus, and perhaps due to the waning of the stimulus programs, May’s economic data indicated a reversal in key expansion criteria. For example, non-farm payrolls, which had been trending in the 220,000 range for the previous three months, came in at 54,000 in May, far below the 180,000 level needed to maintain…
1 min readRecent Federal Reserve communication has set the stage for additional quantitative easing in November. Not so long ago, “Fed speak” was centered on future steps that the Fed may take to gradually remove stimulus. However, this recent shift in communication has pivoted around a deceleration in growth and declining inflation expectations in the market. While…