2 min readMonetary Policy Report In its semi-annual report to Congress submitted earlier this week, the FOMC stated that “The U.S. economy continued to grow moderately last year and the labor market strengthened further. With these gains, the current expansion entered its 11th year, becoming the longest on record.” The report noted that inflation remains below the…
5 min readThe coronavirus has been the major event in the global economy so far this year. With more than 40,000 confirmed cases globally as of 2/10/2020, it has already surpassed prior flu pandemics. It has resulted in the effective quarantining of the city of Hubei, along with severe travel restrictions in and around mainland China. There…
4 min readThe 2019 mid-September liquidity squeeze in overnight repo markets was perhaps the single most noteworthy event in the cash markets last year. As we noted at the time, the event posed major questions about the post-crisis banking regime and its impact on banks’ ability to lend out reserves. It also asked important questions of the…
2 min readFOMC Holds Rates Steady The Federal Reserve met last week to review monetary policy for the first time this year and to no one’s surprise, the FOMC left the overnight lending rate unchanged at the 1.50% to 1.75% range. The Fed remains in a wait-and-see mode where interest rates are concerned, saying it “judges that…
2 min readStrong Year for the Markets After trending down on Tuesday morning, markets reversed course and closed the year on a high note. While they were off their December all-time highs, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posted their best yearly performances since 2013, rising 28.9% and 35.2%, respectively, while the DJIA had its best year since…
2 min readFinal FOMC Meeting of 2019 The Federal Reserve met on December 11th and, as expected, left rates unchanged at the 1.50% to 1.75% target range. The FOMC signaled that it has little appetite for adjustments to monetary policy in the near term, saying “the current stance … is appropriate to support sustained expansion of economic…
2 min readIn a move that was widely expected, the Federal Reserve cut rates last Wednesday by 25 basis points to the 1.50% to 1.75% range. Seven officials voted for the cut, and two (Esther George and Eric Rosengren) dissented again in favor of no change in monetary policy. Because the rate reduction had been anticipated, the…
4 min readIn a move that surprised no one, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting, the third cut in as many months. The current Federal Funds rate range now lies at 1.50%-1.75%, still relatively high compared to short-term rates in other G8 economies and still well off…
2 min readEverchanging speculation on tariff war developments continues to drive bond market volatility as well as projections on potential interest rate cuts. Earlier this month, a mini-deal between the Trump administration and Chinese officials buoyed market sentiment when additional tariffs slated for implementation in December were delayed and China agreed to buy additional US agricultural products….
5 min readThe interest rate blues are well in effect. For those with enough foresight to see this coming (and thus to load up on long-duration Treasury bonds) it has been an absolute riot. For the rest of the fixed income investment community, it’s been a bit of a bloodbath. Figure 1: Yield Curve Source: Bloomberg Over…