Economy & Rates

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Interest Rate Outlook: The Fed’s Inflation Target

2 min readFed officials are committed to the current level of rates until inflation exceeds 2% Several Fed officials spoke in late September on the timing of future interest rate hikes in relation to the inflation target of 2%. Chicago Fed President Evans reversed his earlier position that the Fed could start raising rates before inflation reaches…

Federal Reserve’s Economic Projections

Federal Reserve’s Economic Projections

2 min readFOMC Meeting The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at yesterday’s meeting on monetary policy, and in the statement accompanying the meeting, the Fed commented that “Economic activity and employment have picked up in recent months but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year.” And while “Overall financial conditions have improved…

Government Yield Curves are Flat and Low

Government Yield Curves are Flat and Low

2 min readFOMC Minutes Released The minutes from the FOMC’s July 28-29 meeting were released today. In the committee’s discussion about how to continue to support the flow of credit to consumers, they deemed “it would be appropriate over coming months for the Federal Reserve to increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency residential mortgage-backed securities…

COVID-19 infection Rates Surge

COVID-19 infection Rates Surge

1 min readCOVID-19 infection rates have fallen dramatically in most industrialized nations, but new cases in the U.S. and in developing countries have surged to record levels in the last few weeks. Despite the serious setbacks, lawmakers in the U.S. continue to grapple with how to most appropriately implement mask requirements to slow the spread of the…

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June Unemployment Report Shows Beginning of Recovery

2 min readStates across the U.S. set multiple single day records for new COVID-19 cases this past week. On June 27th, Florida reported 9,500 new cases, breaking its own record for daily new cases, which it set just a day earlier. Driven primarily by Southern and Southwestern states, the surge has forced legislatures to act. Florida has…

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Interest Rate Outlook: Controversial May Employment Report

2 min readFOMC Meeting The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee met last week and Chair Jerome Powell spelled out a bleak outlook for the U.S. economy. The Fed’s year-end median expectation for the unemployment rate is 9.3%, with 2020 GDP growth projected at negative 6.50% and core PCE inflation at 1.0%. At the press conference following the…

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Managing Loan Covenants Amidst Pandemic Economic Impacts

4 min readWatch the webcast: Click the above video webcast by Capital Advisors Group EVP Stefan Spazek. Some managers of emerging growth companies who took out loans prior to the pandemic may now be confronting the prospect of violating covenants written into their debt agreements. Debt covenants are financial and/or performance-based requirements that lenders put on borrowers…

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Interest Rate Outlook: Markets Hopeful

2 min readProtesting Police Brutality Nationwide protests continued for the seventh day and night following the killing of George Floyd while in the custody of Minneapolis police. President Trump has considered invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807, which would allow the deployment of active-duty military personnel in response to civil unrest. The law was last used in…

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Credit Update: Institutional Cash Investments in the COVID-19 New Reality [Episode 1]

1 min readWatch the webcast: Click the above webcast link for episode 1 of Credit Update. Hosted by Capital Advisors Group’s Director of Investment Research and Strategy, Lance Pan. Topics covered: Recap of Recent Market Events How to Balance Credit Risk in a Portfolio During Times of Economic Volatility (e.g., COVID-19) Overview of Corporate Paper (CP) Bid-Ask…