3 min readPowell: “Not Far” From Rate Cuts In Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress, he suggested the FOMC is getting closer to cutting rates by saying “We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%,”…..“When we do get that confidence — and we’re not far from it — it’ll be appropriate…
3 min readAnother Record Month for the Corporate Bond Market The investment-grade corporate bond market hit a record for new issuance for a second straight month in February. Blue-chip companies sold a February record of $195+ billion of bonds last month, topping the previous February 2023 record of $150.9 billion. Approximately $50 billion of bonds were sold…
7 min readFollowing pandemic-era supply chain disruptions, bottlenecks have become a top-of-mind subject for investors. At the center of the Fed’s tightening cycle was the soft landing—the idea that tighter financial conditions would help bring supply-and-demand into better balance, ease bottlenecks, and bring inflation toward 2% without significantly impacting growth. When last December’s Summary of Economic Projections…
4 min readEconomic Data Supports Feds Delayed Rate Cuts Data released this month supports the patient tone regarding rate cuts that both Fed Chair Powell and other Fed members have been conveying so far this quarter. Stronger inflation and labor market data has led to a recent surge in rates, with the 2-year yield rising 18 basis…
3 min readLabor Market Steady with Signs of Slowing The December employment report was mixed: although non-farm payrolls came in higher than expectations at 216,000, there were 845,000 people who left the labor force, the largest drop in the labor force participation rate since January 2021. For 2023, there were a total of 2.697 million jobs created…
2 min read2023 Recap Despite the majority of market participants forecasting a recession in 2023, GDP rose over 2% in both the first and second quarters and jumped 4.9% in the third quarter, while both equity and fixed income markets had positive returns in 2023. The resilient consumer, cooling inflation, and the Fed’s pivot to deeper 2024…
2 min readNovember – The Everything Rally It was truly a November to remember as equities, Treasuries, investment grade & high yield corporate bonds, and commodities all posted solid gains. The primary drivers were a dovish pivot from Fed members and expectations of a soft landing for the U.S. economy, which translated into the markets eliminating odds of…
3 min readData Supports a Fed on Hold At a recent speech, Fed Chair Powell pushed back on the narrative that the Fed is done raising rates. He continues to reiterate the Fed will be reviewing monetary policy decisions “meeting by meeting” and that more data is needed to show inflation is coming down sustainably. Since the meeting,…
3 min readGDP Doubled in Q3 2023 The first reading for 3rd quarter GDP came in at +4.9%, more than double the +2.1% reading in the 2nd quarter and the most in nearly two years. The US consumer continues to drive the economy forward with personal consumption rising +4%. Spending on services rose by the most in…
2 min readFed Pivot Recent speeches from Fed members have signaled that the FOMC may be finished raising rates, due in part to the rise in long-term bond yields over the past month. The rise in Treasury yields has increased borrowing costs by an amount equal to or even more than a 25-bp rate hike. Dallas Fed…