2 min readThe economy added 206K non-farm payrolls in June, slightly more than anticipated, but the strong headline number was largely offset by softer aspects of the Labor Report. Non-farm payrolls in May and April were revised down by a combined 111K, netting this data release to 95K new jobs. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose 0.1% to…
3 min readRetail Sales Disappoints, Again For the second consecutive month, retail sales came in lower than expected and showed signs that the effects of higher borrowing costs could be impacting US consumers. The May reading rose +0.1% while the flat April reading was revised lower to -0.2%. The Control Group, which feeds into the consumption component…
2 min readThe PCE Price Index decelerated from the previous month as expected. Headline PCE came in at 2.6% year-over-year, and was unchanged month-over-month, down from the 2.7% annual rise and 0.3% monthly rise in April . Additionally, Core PCE came in at 2.6% year-over-year and 0.1% month-over-month, 0.2% below April PCE for both measurements. On a…
3 min readLabor Market Data is Mixed 2024 Inflation Data May Finally be Moderating Economic Data Leads to Ongoing Rate Volatility The first half of June brought a fresh roller coaster ride of volatile yields. The 2-year note is one of the tenors most impacted by future monetary policy, and June began with the 2-year yield declining…
3 min readYesterday, the FOMC left the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, as expected. The committee noted modest further progress towards the Fed’s inflation target, an improvement from the lack of progress noted at the previous meeting. The Fed published an updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which projected just one rate cut through the end…
3 min readModerating Economic Data – Rate Cut Timing Pushed Up Key economic data released in the beginning of this May have come in below expectations, including a downward surprise on the employment report for the first time since October 2023. Although these data points only cover one month, they reveal an economy that appears to be…
3 min read Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 175K in April, missing expectations by 68K, while the unemployment rate increased 0.10% to 3.9%. Over half of the total gain in payrolls were in the Health and Private Education industry, perhaps a signal of weaker hiring across the broader economy than the headline number would suggest. The…
3 min readPowell At May FOMC Meeting: Not As Hawkish As Expected The FOMC met yesterday and kept the overnight lending rate unchanged for the 6th consecutive meeting at the 5.25%-to-5.50% range. Their statement acknowledged the recent increase in inflation data by adding “In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s…
3 min readHotter than expected inflation readings continued in March as headline CPI increased 3.5% year-over-year, 0.3% higher than the yearly increase seen in February, and 0.1% above expectations. Core inflation increased 3.8% year-over-year, in-line with last month’s reading, but also 0.1% above expectations. Energy and shelter prices contributed over 60% of the yearly headline increase. While…
4 min readQ1 2024 Performance: Risk Assets Outperform The first quarter of 2024 saw everything from stocks, gold and even Bitcoin rise to record highs as it becomes increasingly likely that the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy. Treasury yields were mixed during the first quarter with 1-month to 6-month…