6 min readRecent inflation readings have shown promise that price increases are returning to the Fed’s 2% target, a positive for the consumer and economy that may allow the Fed to pivot towards rate cuts. Simultaneously, consumer product manufacturers are facing a pivot of their own. Changes in consumer shopping patterns suggest that the resilience consumers touted…
2 min readYesterday, the FOMC left the range for the Fed Funds Rate unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%, as expected. While the overall stance remains unchanged from June, Chair Powell was clear the committee is taking a more balanced approach by no longer overemphasizing the inflation side of its mandate. The Committee’s statement noted that the FOMC…
4 min readReturn of the Dual Mandate “For a long time, the risks were more that we would fail to hit our inflation target…. we’re very much aware that we have two-sided risks now.” This was a quote from Federal Reserve Chair Powell when he spoke to Congress last week, acknowledging that elevated inflation “is not the…
7 min readIn April, The Wall Street Journal reported that former President Donald Trump’s advisory team has been drafting proposals that could potentially alter the structure of the Federal Reserve, in the event he is elected for a second term. The former President’s team has yet to publicly confirm the existence of such plans, but the reporting…
2 min readThe economy added 206K non-farm payrolls in June, slightly more than anticipated, but the strong headline number was largely offset by softer aspects of the Labor Report. Non-farm payrolls in May and April were revised down by a combined 111K, netting this data release to 95K new jobs. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose 0.1% to…
3 min readRetail Sales Disappoints, Again For the second consecutive month, retail sales came in lower than expected and showed signs that the effects of higher borrowing costs could be impacting US consumers. The May reading rose +0.1% while the flat April reading was revised lower to -0.2%. The Control Group, which feeds into the consumption component…
2 min readThe PCE Price Index decelerated from the previous month as expected. Headline PCE came in at 2.6% year-over-year, and was unchanged month-over-month, down from the 2.7% annual rise and 0.3% monthly rise in April . Additionally, Core PCE came in at 2.6% year-over-year and 0.1% month-over-month, 0.2% below April PCE for both measurements. On a…
3 min readLabor Market Data is Mixed 2024 Inflation Data May Finally be Moderating Economic Data Leads to Ongoing Rate Volatility The first half of June brought a fresh roller coaster ride of volatile yields. The 2-year note is one of the tenors most impacted by future monetary policy, and June began with the 2-year yield declining…
3 min readYesterday, the FOMC left the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, as expected. The committee noted modest further progress towards the Fed’s inflation target, an improvement from the lack of progress noted at the previous meeting. The Fed published an updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which projected just one rate cut through the end…
3 min readModerating Economic Data – Rate Cut Timing Pushed Up Key economic data released in the beginning of this May have come in below expectations, including a downward surprise on the employment report for the first time since October 2023. Although these data points only cover one month, they reveal an economy that appears to be…