11 min readIntroduction By Lance Pan, CFA Since we started publishing the annual “themes to watch” series in 2008, this edition marks our 16th anniversary of looking at key market-moving trends for institutional cash investors. To shake off our Covid-induced autophobia (fear of being alone), I enlisted members of my credit research team to co-author last year’s…
3 min readWelcome to Capital Advisors Group’s inaugural quarterly newsletter that will provide a snapshot of the current state of the debt financing markets. Capital Advisors Group has been advising innovative venture-backed and growth-stage companies on debt finance transactions for more than 18 years. This newsletter will provide insight into debt markets, specifically as they relate to…
3 min readFresh Economic Data This past week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released October’s Personal Income and Outlays Report. Personal income and spending rose by 0.7% and 0.8%, respectively, on a month-over-month basis. The headline Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index climbed by 6.0% year-over-year, while the core PCE index, stripping out food and energy costs and…
2 min readInsight and Perspective on the economy and your cash portfolio After multiple interest rate increases since March 2022, institutional cash investors are welcoming higher returns but wary of the possibility that an economic slowdown or recession might increase credit risk in their cash portfolio. Watch our latest Quarterly Cash Update for insights and perspective on…
2 min readIn a widely expected move, the Federal Reserve raised the overnight lending rate today by 75 basis points for the 4th time in 4 meetings. Following the FOMC’s action, the rate now rests at the 3.75% to 4.00% range. The Fed’s 2022 tightening activity has been extraordinary for a central bank with a history of…
7 min readHow Russia’s halt on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline may lead to energy shortages in Europe Co-authored by: Matthew Paniati As the US economy faces high inflation, slowing growth, and aggressive monetary policy, another macroeconomic threat has presented itself overseas. On August 31st, 2022, Russian-controlled Gazprom PJSC announced an indefinite halt on natural gas flows…
14 min readIntroduction With the 75-basis-point hike in the Fed funds rate on September 21st, Fed officials now peg their median forecast for the key policy rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range by the end of the year. The resulting rise in bond yields has been so breathtaking that the previous expectation that Fed funds would end the…
2 min readGiven their aggressive efforts to tame price pressures over the past few quarters, Chair Powell and the Federal Reserve were likely to have been very disappointed by the release of August’s Consumer Price Index. Despite a 2.25% increase in the overnight lending rate over just four meetings, the reading came in higher than expected with…
8 min readInflation and recession, two words on the top of every investor’s mind right now. In our recent post on Inflation Winners and Losers, we talked about how the near-term outlook for inflation is relatively entrenched. This matters because the Fed has thrown the weight of its credibility on reducing inflation, raising interest rates aggressively since…
2 min readThese are certainly challenging times for the Federal Reserve. The past few weeks brought new data confirming historically tight conditions in the labor market alongside soaring domestic price pressures. While the Fed’s recent aggressive rate hikes have yet to cool inflation, concerns are growing that the pace and scope of their activity will push the…