2 min readAbstract Lower oil prices and easier central bank policies outside the U.S. led the market to question the Fed’s timetable for raising interest rates. While both disinflationary and expansionary forces are present, financial markets appear to be focusing on the former, as the latter is still materializing. The net effect may allow the Fed to…
1 min readAs we transition into a new year, I reflect on 2014 as a year of steady but slow economic progress. Continued improvements in the labor markets moved the U.S. closer to the self-sustaining economy the Fed is targeting. Quantitative easing ended quietly while the U.S. equity markets continued their march upward, adding to an improved…
2 min readAbstract The three new trends we watch out for in 2015 include the start of an interest rate tightening cycle, consequences of worsening supply shortage, and resurging geopolitical uncertainties. We recommend moderate portfolio duration and a laddered portfolio structure. Other suitable tools may include callable securities, floating rate notes and bonds with putable and callable…
2 min readAbstract This research commentary discusses liquidity in the context of corporate cash portfolios, coming challenges in the post-crisis era, why liquidity reversal may be a systemic concern, and how investors should prepare for the new liquidity equilibrium in a normalized interest rate environment. Our suggestions for corporate cash professionals include the following: Review and Revise…
1 min readThe SEC’s announcement last week that institutional prime money market funds will soon incorporate floating NAVs, along with potential fees and gates on liquidity during times of stress, ends nearly five years of discordant regulatory deliberations. During that time, Capital Advisors Group has been active in the assessment of money fund risks through our FundIQ®…
1 min readSurvey goal To shed light on treasury departments’ efforts to mitigate liquidity risk in short-term cash investment, debt and forecasting practices. What we’ve learned in 2014 Treasury and financial professionals appear to have begun to control bank exposures Decrease in bank deposits Firms seem to have increased the pace at which they negotiate and renegotiate…
2 min readSubtle language changes to the Fed’s official statement and comments from Janet Yellen’s first press conference as Chair shifted the anticipated timing of a Fed funds rate hike to the first half of 2015. The dot chart that maps FOMC members’ interest rate predictions showed that the majority expect the first rate hike to come…
2 min readAbstract Make whole calls caused little investor concern until the low yield environment resulted in unexpected losses. Make whole provisions fail to protect short-term investors when bond spreads fall below make whole levels. Yield volatility in Treasury securities complicates matters and increases risk for cash investors. Make whole bonds are generally not considered callable, and…
1 min readAbstract Separate accounts may offer greater return and reduced credit risk compared to prime money market funds. By examining current and future liquidity needs and the potential for significant deviations from cash flow projections, corporate treasurers may construct portfolios with direct investments in high-quality credits that satisfy current, future and emergency liquidity needs – and…
1 min readAs 2013 closes and we pen our annual “Three Challenges in the Coming Year” research paper, I thought that a self-evaluation of our previous year’s views would make for an interesting exercise. Last year at this time, we cited acceleration in money fund reform, scarcity of eligible investments and the low rate environment as the…