2 min readThe economy added 206K non-farm payrolls in June, slightly more than anticipated, but the strong headline number was largely offset by softer aspects of the Labor Report. Non-farm payrolls in May and April were revised down by a combined 111K, netting this data release to 95K new jobs. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose 0.1% to…
18 min readFinancial markets have closely monitored consumers’ financial health following the COVID-19 pandemic to gauge when the exceptional economic tailwind provided by high levels of household savings would fade. Accounting for roughly two-thirds of GDP, consumer spending was juiced by pandemic era stimulus programs which ballooned household savings. These savings were later depleted as post-stimulus inflation…
3 min read Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 175K in April, missing expectations by 68K, while the unemployment rate increased 0.10% to 3.9%. Over half of the total gain in payrolls were in the Health and Private Education industry, perhaps a signal of weaker hiring across the broader economy than the headline number would suggest. The…
2 min readOn Friday afternoon, the FDIC took the failed Republic First Bank into receivership and the majority of the bank’s assets and liabilities were sold to Fulton Bank on the same day. We do not expect this bank failure to create systemwide turmoil similar to what we experienced in March of 2023 due to Republic First…
3 min readHotter than expected inflation readings continued in March as headline CPI increased 3.5% year-over-year, 0.3% higher than the yearly increase seen in February, and 0.1% above expectations. Core inflation increased 3.8% year-over-year, in-line with last month’s reading, but also 0.1% above expectations. Energy and shelter prices contributed over 60% of the yearly headline increase. While…
10 min readDuring the weekend following Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse, it became apparent that the bank run which drove SVB to insolvency was spreading, placing extreme liquidity pressures on a few regional lenders. Bank balance sheets remained fundamentally stable, although, the volume and speed of deposit outflows at some banks was overwhelming available liquid resources. Many banks…
7 min readWhen will “revenge spending” exhaust consumers’ pandemic-era savings? What does this mean for consumption and growth? Introduction Excess savings have become a marque piece of economic outlooks, attempting to estimate when consumers’ “revenge spending” will exhaust bank accounts leading to a drop in consumption. However, Q3 2023’s 4.9% annualized GDP growth, most of which was…
7 min readMacroeconomic Conditions The post-pandemic economy has had to contend with a rarely seen number of short-term disruptions and fundamental shifts to which it has mostly taken in stride. So far, we have avoided a widely broadcast recession, helped initially by huge amounts of pandemic related financial aid, and followed by a historically strong labor market…
6 min readHow the availability of ESG data is changing the way investors can apply ESG to their decision-making process Much of the commentary surrounding ESG investing hails it as an approach which has largely been developed and risen to prominence in recent years. While its rapid rise in popularity since the COVID pandemic has led to…
9 min readWhat Led to The Bank’s Eventual Closure and What Lessons Cash Investors Can Learn From This to Minimize Portfolio Risk On March 8th, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) announced a significant balance sheet restructuring and an associated $2.25 billion capital raise to shore up the bank’s financial position after rising rates and significant deposit outflows severely…