2 min readEmployment and Inflation Markets inferred optimism on inflation earlier this month from Federal Reserve Chairperson Jerome Powell’s press conference accompanying the FOMC’s February 1st decision to raise rates. While the Fed’s statement and Powell himself indicated that more than one additional rate hike remained likely, markets contradicted the Fed’s guidance and bet that only one…
2 min readCPI Surprised to the Upside… Again The Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in September, double the expected increase, despite a decline in energy prices for the month. Services and shelter costs were the biggest contributors, but large increases were broad-based across categories. Core CPI accelerated unexpectedly to a 0.6% monthly gain, pushing the year-over-year comparison…
2 min readThe Fed appears likely to increase its overnight rate target at the March 15th-16th FOMC meeting. In addition to many other Fed officials who have expressed a willingness to tighten monetary policy to contain inflation pressures, Fed Chair Powell reinforced the hawkish tone at his Senate nomination hearing earlier this month. Throughout most of 2021…
2 min readOutgoing Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced in late November that he would allow certain Federal Reserve relief programs to expire at the end of the year. Federal Reserve officials had publicly urged Mnuchin to extend all emergency programs but ultimately conceded and will close several of the facilities this month. The Fed also announced on Monday…
2 min readProtesting Police Brutality Nationwide protests continued for the seventh day and night following the killing of George Floyd while in the custody of Minneapolis police. President Trump has considered invoking the Insurrection Act of 1807, which would allow the deployment of active-duty military personnel in response to civil unrest. The law was last used in…
2 min readEconomic Shutdown We are only just seeing initial readings on the state of the post-COVID 19 economy and much will unfold in the months ahead. Data released in early April reflects the dismal reality of the large-scale shutdown of the US economic growth engine. Jobless claims have surged to record levels, with more than 22…
18 min readDOWNLOAD FULL REPORT Abstract We set out to answer 10 of the most common questions that arise when writing investment policy statements (“IPS”) for cash portfolios. In doing so, we will provide a number of peer group data comparisons to add insight and context to the process. The 10 questions focus on the following subjects…
2 min readEverchanging speculation on tariff war developments continues to drive bond market volatility as well as projections on potential interest rate cuts. Earlier this month, a mini-deal between the Trump administration and Chinese officials buoyed market sentiment when additional tariffs slated for implementation in December were delayed and China agreed to buy additional US agricultural products….
2 min readCo-authored by: Carter Bourassa On Wednesday, August 14th, 2019, the yield curve inverted when the 10-year Treasury note fell below the yield of the 2-year note. Equity markets dipped in reaction, with the three major indexes all suffering losses of more than 2.9%. Yield curve inversions are among the more reliable recession indicators; Credit Suisse…
2 min readChinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Donald Trump agreed to resume trade negotiations ahead of the G20 summit last weekend, with the U.S. granting a reprieve on certain Huawei restrictions and on further tariff increases. China agreed to buy additional American agricultural goods in exchange. Stock markets surged on Monday in reaction to the…