4 min readTwo Down, Two To Go Following July’s FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Powell repeatedly referenced the theme of data dependency and confirmed that the Fed will be focused on the two job reports and two CPI reports still to be released ahead of their September meeting. To date, we’ve seen two of the four reports. First…
3 min readThe Fed is ‘Data Dependent’, as Always As was widely expected, the Fed increased their policy rate last week by 25 basis points to a new range of 5.25%-5.50%. This level is a 22-year high and it marks the 11th time since March of 2022 that the Fed has raised their target rate. The official FOMC…
3 min readSoft Labor Market & Inflation Releases June’s Employment Report was released on July 7th, showing an increase in non-farm payrolls of 209,000 vs. expectations for 230,000, marking the first time that payrolls have come in below market projections in the past 15 months. Additionally, payrolls were revised downward by a total of 110,000 in the…
4 min readYields Rise Welcome to the third quarter and the second half of 2023! Treasury yields rose across the curve during the second quarter, led by the 2-year note which rose 87 basis points to 4.90%. The rise in yields was a result of solid economic data, elevated inflation, and a Fed signaling a “higher-for-longer” monetary…
4 min readFederal Reserve – A Hawkish Pause As expected, the FOMC held the Federal Funds rate at the 5.00%-5.25% range at their June FOMC meeting, marking the first pause after 10 consecutive increases. The Fed has raised rates by a cumulative 5 percentage points since March of 2022, the most since the 1980s. Powell commented that…