3 min readRetail Sales Disappoints, Again For the second consecutive month, retail sales came in lower than expected and showed signs that the effects of higher borrowing costs could be impacting US consumers. The May reading rose +0.1% while the flat April reading was revised lower to -0.2%. The Control Group, which feeds into the consumption component…
3 min readLabor Market Data is Mixed 2024 Inflation Data May Finally be Moderating Economic Data Leads to Ongoing Rate Volatility The first half of June brought a fresh roller coaster ride of volatile yields. The 2-year note is one of the tenors most impacted by future monetary policy, and June began with the 2-year yield declining…
3 min readModerating Economic Data – Rate Cut Timing Pushed Up Key economic data released in the beginning of this May have come in below expectations, including a downward surprise on the employment report for the first time since October 2023. Although these data points only cover one month, they reveal an economy that appears to be…
3 min readPowell At May FOMC Meeting: Not As Hawkish As Expected The FOMC met yesterday and kept the overnight lending rate unchanged for the 6th consecutive meeting at the 5.25%-to-5.50% range. Their statement acknowledged the recent increase in inflation data by adding “In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s…
4 min readQ1 2024 Performance: Risk Assets Outperform The first quarter of 2024 saw everything from stocks, gold and even Bitcoin rise to record highs as it becomes increasingly likely that the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy. Treasury yields were mixed during the first quarter with 1-month to 6-month…
3 min readPowell: “Not Far” From Rate Cuts In Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress, he suggested the FOMC is getting closer to cutting rates by saying “We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%,”…..“When we do get that confidence — and we’re not far from it — it’ll be appropriate…
3 min readAnother Record Month for the Corporate Bond Market The investment-grade corporate bond market hit a record for new issuance for a second straight month in February. Blue-chip companies sold a February record of $195+ billion of bonds last month, topping the previous February 2023 record of $150.9 billion. Approximately $50 billion of bonds were sold…
4 min readEconomic Data Supports Feds Delayed Rate Cuts Data released this month supports the patient tone regarding rate cuts that both Fed Chair Powell and other Fed members have been conveying so far this quarter. Stronger inflation and labor market data has led to a recent surge in rates, with the 2-year yield rising 18 basis…
3 min readLabor Market Steady with Signs of Slowing The December employment report was mixed: although non-farm payrolls came in higher than expectations at 216,000, there were 845,000 people who left the labor force, the largest drop in the labor force participation rate since January 2021. For 2023, there were a total of 2.697 million jobs created…
2 min read2023 Recap Despite the majority of market participants forecasting a recession in 2023, GDP rose over 2% in both the first and second quarters and jumped 4.9% in the third quarter, while both equity and fixed income markets had positive returns in 2023. The resilient consumer, cooling inflation, and the Fed’s pivot to deeper 2024…