5 min readPotential for a Fed Santa Pause The Fed followed up their September 50 basis point rate cut with a unanimous 25 basis point cut on November 7th, bringing the federal funds target range to 4.50%-4.75%. With one remaining FOMC meeting this year on December 18th, the market has been flip-flopping between the potential for another…
5 min readResilient Consumer Continues to Spend – No Grinch Forecasted Recent economic data highlights a resilient consumer ahead of the holiday season: Yields Rise on Data and Election Outlook October saw treasury yields rise approximately 40 to 60 basis points from 2 years to 30 years with several narratives behind the increase in yields: Mixed Labor…
3 min readLabor Market Remains Solid but Data Could be Noisy Ahead The September employment report was solid overall but with hurricanes Helene and Milton hitting the Southeast of the United States, labor statistics could be noisy ahead. September Employment Report: Looking ahead, the October jobs report (which will be released on November 1st) will incorporate layoffs…
4 min readMarket Reaction Following the September FOMC Meeting Since the Fed cut the federal funds rate on September 18th, a notable market reaction has been a steepening of the treasury yield curve with front-end treasury yields lower, and longer-end yields higher (see chart 1 below). This move in the curve was expected, as the Fed is…
6 min readFed Cut Rates by 50 Basis Points – But 50 is Not “the New Pace” At the September 18th FOMC meeting, the Fed cut the federal funds rate for the first time in over 4 years by 50 basis points to a new range of 4.75%-to-5.00%. Heading into the meeting, Fed Chair Powell made clear…
3 min readThe Time Has Come To Cut Rates In his keynote address at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Powell said the Fed now feels it is time to adjust monetary policy. His comment followed the release of the minutes from the Fed’s July FOMC meeting, which showed “several” members were in…
4 min readReturn of the Dual Mandate “For a long time, the risks were more that we would fail to hit our inflation target…. we’re very much aware that we have two-sided risks now.” This was a quote from Federal Reserve Chair Powell when he spoke to Congress last week, acknowledging that elevated inflation “is not the…
3 min readRetail Sales Disappoints, Again For the second consecutive month, retail sales came in lower than expected and showed signs that the effects of higher borrowing costs could be impacting US consumers. The May reading rose +0.1% while the flat April reading was revised lower to -0.2%. The Control Group, which feeds into the consumption component…
3 min readLabor Market Data is Mixed 2024 Inflation Data May Finally be Moderating Economic Data Leads to Ongoing Rate Volatility The first half of June brought a fresh roller coaster ride of volatile yields. The 2-year note is one of the tenors most impacted by future monetary policy, and June began with the 2-year yield declining…
3 min readModerating Economic Data – Rate Cut Timing Pushed Up Key economic data released in the beginning of this May have come in below expectations, including a downward surprise on the employment report for the first time since October 2023. Although these data points only cover one month, they reveal an economy that appears to be…