6 min readRecent inflation readings have shown promise that price increases are returning to the Fed’s 2% target, a positive for the consumer and economy that may allow the Fed to pivot towards rate cuts. Simultaneously, consumer product manufacturers are facing a pivot of their own. Changes in consumer shopping patterns suggest that the resilience consumers touted…
2 min readThe PCE Price Index decelerated from the previous month as expected. Headline PCE came in at 2.6% year-over-year, and was unchanged month-over-month, down from the 2.7% annual rise and 0.3% monthly rise in April . Additionally, Core PCE came in at 2.6% year-over-year and 0.1% month-over-month, 0.2% below April PCE for both measurements. On a…
3 min readYesterday, the FOMC left the fed funds rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, as expected. The committee noted modest further progress towards the Fed’s inflation target, an improvement from the lack of progress noted at the previous meeting. The Fed published an updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), which projected just one rate cut through the end…
9 min readIntroduction On March 7th, 2024, the European Commission (EC) began enforcing the Digital Markets Act (DMA), one of the most sweeping antitrust policies for Big Tech to date. Yet despite the broad scope covered under the legislation, the market reaction was relatively muted. This suggests a belief that the companies’ operational changes proposed to comply…
2 min readFor the quarter ending March 30th 2024, Apple reported net income of $23.6B, down 2.2% year-over-year, on revenues of $90.8B which were 4.3% lower over the same period. The change in revenues reflected a 14.2% increase in services revenue and a 9.5% decrease in product revenues. Of particular note, iPhone sales which accounted for about…
3 min readStable Guidance Amid Inflation’s Bumpy Road Yesterday, the Federal Reserve left the Fed Funds Target Range unchanged at 5.25% – 5.50%. The Committee’s statement was largely unchanged from January, noting solid economic expansion, strong job gains, and low unemployment. The Fed published their updated Summary of Economic (SEP), which did not significantly change, except for…
7 min readFollowing pandemic-era supply chain disruptions, bottlenecks have become a top-of-mind subject for investors. At the center of the Fed’s tightening cycle was the soft landing—the idea that tighter financial conditions would help bring supply-and-demand into better balance, ease bottlenecks, and bring inflation toward 2% without significantly impacting growth. When last December’s Summary of Economic Projections…
5 min readIntroduction Earlier this year, European oil majors BP and Shell announced that they would roll back their energy transition plans and keep oil and gas as relatively large parts of their portfolio. In October 2023, their American counterparts Exxon Mobil and Chevron doubled down on a collective $115 billion bet on fossil fuels. Exxon Mobil…
7 min readWhat effects have the labor strikes had on credit markets and how may the Fed’s tightening cycles create further impact? Introduction The U.S. lost 4.1 million days of work to strikes in August, the most in 23 years. The end to the Writers’ strikes brought this figure down to 3.6 million in September, but 33,000…
7 min readCash investors looking to incorporate ESG face an interesting dilemma: Can you invest in oil majors while claiming to be an ESG investor? The answer may surprise you. Part 1: A Recent History of Energy The prominence of ESG investing has increased significantly in recent years, and nowhere has its impact been felt more than…